DISQUS

Cafe Hayek: Like a Virus

  • Michael Blair · 2 years ago

    Y'know, come to think of it, I've gained about 2 lbs since I first found this site. You and Don are packing on pounds, aren't you?

  • Al · 2 years ago

    Obviously, a quarantine is in order. We must ship all fat people to North Korea where there are no phones.


    Or food for that matter.


    Too Swiftian?

  • Rob Dawg · 2 years ago

    As one of the very very few remaining two digit numbered subjects of the study in question I find your "conclusions" both personally insulting and scientifically specious.

  • LisaMarie · 2 years ago

    Obviously the solution is for the government to regulate your friends. After all, we've tried letting people choose their own friends, and it's just not working. This state of anarchy where individuals choose their friends is accomplishing nothing but making us all fat. I can hardly wait to see the government apparatus that will carry out this plan.

  • Sam Grove · 2 years ago

    How old are these researchers?

    I bet they are products of our public school system.

  • blink · 2 years ago

    We learn from the article that “people were most likely to become obese when a friend became obese.” As you explain, “obese” refers to a BMI threshold. Given this and the small magnitude of the “effect” in terms of pounds, the appropriate conclusion seems to be that individuals near the threshold of obesity CHOSE friends who are also near the threshold. Everything else could be explained by a small, general increase in body weight.


    I have to admit, however, that this study has surely enriched my life – reading this post was absolutely hilarious.


  • SKPeterson · 2 years ago

    Although the analogy isn't perfect (bacterial v. viral infection), shouldn't we be devoting resources to the identification of "Obesity Mary": the one person who through the laws of six degrees of separation is responsible for something like 90% of all the obesity in America? By quarantining this person and putting them on a strict diet, exercise and an immediate liposuction and stomach reduction surgery, the obesity problem in the US should finally begin to abate.

  • speedmaster · 2 years ago

    So hanging out at Curves can actually make you fatter?! ;-)

  • Ray G · 2 years ago

    Wasn't it not too very long ago that bulemia and anorexia were an epidemic, supermodels were to be demonized for their withering influence on our youth?

  • Chris O'Leary · 2 years ago

    What could be at work is a phenomenon called Social Proof. This term, coined by social psychologist Robert Cialdini, says that people are heavily influenced by the actions of others; they create norms.


    It could be that's what's going on here. People are following the norms that are set by their friends.

  • Ray G · 2 years ago

    I don't gain weight easily, but when my wife was pregnant with our first child, I gained more weight than I ever had in my life. And subsequently lost it. It wasn't sympathy, we just happened to be eating more. . .

  • lowcountryjoe · 2 years ago

    I'm considering launching a study of my own using a 'representative' sample size of 535 people out of an entire population. My theory that I'm going to test is this: if nearly all of sample eat at the trough will the cummulative weight of the population's wallets and purses decrease? If I can get my study funded with public money, at least my wallet won't be decreasing in weight no matter if the theory holds or not; I'll make sure of that.


  • cpurick · 2 years ago

    Just out of curiosity, aren't "friends" defined as the people one socializes with -- say, at dinner?

  • Jake Young · 2 years ago

    The Framingham study population is an exceptionally well characterized population that has been studied since the 40s. It was primarily started to investigate risk factors for heart disease. I am certain that they have data on the econonomic factors for these people, though it would appear that some authors are not choosing to use it.


    The suggestion, however, that it is a once in a lifetime data set and therefore cannot be replicated is not accurate. There are a couple other of these long-term longitudinal studies going already on such as in Busselton, Australia.


    All told though, this paper is just bollocks. I can't believe anyone published this nonsense.

  • Jeff Smith · 2 years ago



    The problem here is not the fact that the data come from only one place, or that the sample size is not that big or that they did not include some particular covariate. It is that they do not have any good way to identify the causal effect they seek to estimate because friends are endogenously chosen rather than exogenously assigned.


    Someone might helpfully point them (and the many credulous journalists who have reported this story) to the methodological discussions on peer effects in the economics literature.


    Dr. Manski, call your office!


  • Brad · 2 years ago

    My theory is that the authors know this is BS. What they are actually sneakily trying to demonstrate is Seth Godin's notion of an idea virus. They have succeeded. Scott Adams notes this study on his Dilbert Blog today:


    http://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the_dilbert_blog/2007/07/the-secret.html

  • LowcountryJoe · 2 years ago

    An idea virus? That must be like the many hundreds of e-mails that I receive that have either a chain-letter theme, instruct me on which days to boycott gas stations, cite a conspiracy, or tell me which products are hazadous.

  • Darren · 2 years ago

    Ah yes, idea viruses (memes). I'm pretty sure worship of the state is a meme. Anyone think the government might launch an effort to stop the spread of that one?

  • K · 2 years ago

    LisaMarie is right in saying the government should choose your friends, the old way is just not working.


    Agreed. The government will make my friends diet when I want to lose weight. And make them exercise to keep me toned up.


    They must also start taking music lessons and studying Spanish.

  • Lee Kelly · 2 years ago

    I have no friends.


    What are the implications for my weight?

  • Marianne Coleman · 2 years ago

    If you like cartoons, the NYT-Week in review section-pg 2 - 7/29/07 just for fun...!

  • Jerry · 2 years ago

    K - you will live a full and happy life, unencumbered by the issues and weight-gain your friends (if you had any) would place upon you.


    Good game.

  • Jerry · 2 years ago

    ^^^ Lee, even.


    Honestly, this article is total stupidity though. I'm surprised that any reputable journal would even consider it, let alone actually publish it :|

  • Jon · 2 years ago

    Oh oh! I'm 6' and 145lbs. Be friends with me!


    This could be a great marketing scheme, can I now charge my fat friends for my friendship? "Pay to hang out with me and lose weight!"


    Absolutely absurd.

  • Rob Dawg · 2 years ago

    The Framingham [Heart S]tudy population is an exceptionally well characterized population that has been studied since the 40s. It was primarily started to investigate risk factors for heart disease. I am certain that they have data on the econonomic factors for these people, though it would appear that some authors are not choosing to use it.


    My late grandparents were #s 2 & 3. My aunts and uncles still participate. My generation (3rd) transects all continents and range in age over 40 years. These surveys have incorporated my progeny. I regularly fill out surveys and periodically and at my own expense participate at great expense in certified health screenings of detail and extant most cannot imagine. Prof. B's cavalier dismissal of the value of these efforts suggests to me that I should drop out and thus lose to humanity the value of 4 generations of longitudinal data. Prof B has additionally inspiried me to investigate a potential free market solution. Should I contact the other participants and collectively bargain for a share of the proceeds? Free market Prof. B. Hey, we could even go "Disney" and retroactively sue for past use. Good job Prof. B. Long live individual self interest. Oh wait...

  • J · 2 years ago

    I refer you to the lyrics of a rap song I heard a while ago that discusses how ridiculous it is to refer to an "obesity epidemic." It's by Lazyboy and the song is called "underwear goes inside the pants."


    "Americans, let's face it: We've been a spoiled country for a long time.

    Do you know what the number one health risk in America is?


    Obesity. They say we're in the middle of an obesity epidemic.


    An epidemic like it is polio. Like we'll be telling our grand kids about it one day.


    The Great Obesity Epidemic of 2004.


    "How'd you get through it grandpa?"


    "Oh, it was horrible Johnny, there was cheesecake and pork chops everywhere."





  • MiltonFriedman · 2 years ago

    Maybe solidarity amongst the the proletariats is not such a good thing.

  • lose 10 pound · 2 years ago

    So true. I never like desert, but since I got marry I tended to eat more desert, it was because my husband is a desert lover. That's how we both gained weight! It is all his false!

    Now we are trying to lose weight together and desert is out of the list!

  • sleepingbeauty · 1 year ago

    Obesity has a lot of negative effects on an individual. For one, being obese causes a person to feel easily tired. Doing everyday body motions like walking, tying one’s shoe lace and sitting down – as well as standing up – is very challenging if not difficult.


    there are ways to battle obesity. The goal of someone who is suffering from obesity and who is trying to lose weight should not be to lose weight. The main objective should be: to eat healthy, to always think healthy and be healthy.


    Practicing eating foods that are good for the health is the best way to start. Having a regular time for exercise is another. It does not have to be a rigorous program in the gym. One could easily start with walking at least thirty minutes a day, everyday.